SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Lille | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Marseille | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Toulouse | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Nice | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Nantes | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Brest | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 60.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 17.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Nantes win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Nantes |
60.58% ( 0.61) | 21.71% ( -0.2) | 17.72% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 51.82% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.44% ( 0.25) | 45.56% ( -0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.11% ( 0.23) | 67.89% ( -0.23) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.42% ( 0.28) | 14.58% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.34% ( 0.53) | 42.66% ( -0.53) |
| Nantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.67% ( -0.32) | 39.33% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.97% ( -0.3) | 76.03% ( 0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | Nantes |
| 1-0 @ 11.04% 2-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.09)2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.97% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.61% Total : 60.57% | 1-1 @ 10.3% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 5.74% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.7% | 0-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.12% Total : 17.72% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 68 | 29 | 39 | 66 |
| 2 | Lens | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 60 |
| 3 | Marseille | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 60 |
| 4 | MonacoMonaco | 29 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 61 | 40 | 21 | 57 |
| 5 | Lille | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 52 |
| 6 | Rennes | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 30 | 17 | 50 |
| 7 | Reims | 29 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 39 | 28 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | Nice | 29 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 45 |
| 9 | Lyon | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 44 |
| 10 | Lorient | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 44 |
| 11 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
| 12 | Clermont | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 35 |
| 14 | NantesNantes | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 30 |
| 15 | Brest | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 27 |
| 16 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 29 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 26 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 26 |
| 18 | Troyes | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 62 | -24 | 21 |
| 19 | Ajaccio | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 21 |
| 20 | Angers | 29 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 64 | -42 | 11 |
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