SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 62.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 15.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.61%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Ajaccio |
62.31% ( 0.54) | 22.52% ( -0.2) | 15.16% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 44.12% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.9% ( 0.19) | 53.1% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.32% ( 0.16) | 74.68% ( -0.16) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.43% ( 0.25) | 16.56% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.65% ( 0.45) | 46.34% ( -0.45) |
| Ajaccio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.87% ( -0.36) | 47.12% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.42% ( -0.27) | 82.58% ( 0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | Ajaccio |
| 1-0 @ 14.03% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 12.61% ( 0.12)2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 5.69% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.72% Total : 62.3% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.58% Total : 22.51% | 0-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.11% Total : 15.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 68 | 29 | 39 | 66 |
| 2 | Lens | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 60 |
| 3 | Marseille | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 60 |
| 4 | MonacoMonaco | 29 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 61 | 40 | 21 | 57 |
| 5 | Lille | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 52 |
| 6 | Rennes | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 30 | 17 | 50 |
| 7 | Reims | 29 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 39 | 28 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | Nice | 29 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 45 |
| 9 | Lyon | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 44 |
| 10 | Lorient | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 44 |
| 11 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
| 12 | Clermont | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 35 |
| 14 | NantesNantes | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 30 |
| 15 | Brest | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 27 |
| 16 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 29 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 26 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 26 |
| 18 | Troyes | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 62 | -24 | 21 |
| 19 | Ajaccio | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 21 |
| 20 | Angers | 29 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 64 | -42 | 11 |
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