SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 49.96%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Newport County |
49.96% ( 0.04) | 22.85% ( 0) | 27.19% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 61.05% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.52% ( -0.04) | 39.48% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.18% ( -0.05) | 61.83% ( 0.05) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.99% | 16.02% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.65% ( -0) | 45.35% ( 0.01) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.69% ( -0.05) | 27.31% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.25% ( -0.07) | 62.76% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Swindon Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.81% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.77% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.66% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.73% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.98% Other @ 3.62% Total : 49.96% | 1-1 @ 10.39% 2-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.84% | 1-2 @ 6.75% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.68% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.69% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.59% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.94% Total : 27.19% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 51 |
| 2 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 25 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 49 |
| 3 | Wrexham | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 49 |
| 4 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 48 |
| 5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 44 |
| 6 | Notts County | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 42 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | MK Dons | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 39 |
| 10 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 38 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 38 |
| 12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 37 |
| 13 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 36 |
| 14 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 |
| 17 | Morecambe | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 33 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 31 |
| 19 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 28 |
| 20 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 27 |
| 21 | Salford City | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 24 |
| 23 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 18 |
| 24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 18 |
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