SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 42.97%. A win for Bradford City had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Bradford City win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Bradford City |
| 42.97% | 26.82% ( -0.02) | 30.2% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.02% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.15% ( 0.07) | 54.84% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.85% ( 0.06) | 76.14% ( -0.06) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.71% ( 0.03) | 25.28% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.95% ( 0.05) | 60.05% ( -0.05) |
| Bradford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.94% ( 0.05) | 33.05% ( -0.05) |
