SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 44.76%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 29.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Harrogate Town |
44.76% ( 0.01) | 25.56% ( -0.01) | 29.68% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 53.66% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.99% ( 0.03) | 50.01% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.01% ( 0.03) | 71.99% ( -0.03) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.7% ( 0.02) | 22.3% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.23% ( 0.03) | 55.77% ( -0.02) |
| Harrogate Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.07% ( 0.02) | 30.93% ( -0.01) |
