SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 36.72%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 36.64% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 0-1 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Colchester United |
36.72% ( -0.72) | 26.64% ( 0.16) | 36.64% ( 0.56) |
| Both teams to score 52.11% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.13% ( -0.64) | 52.87% ( 0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.52% ( -0.55) | 74.48% ( 0.55) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.21% ( -0.73) | 27.79% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 36.62% ( -0.94) | 63.38% ( 0.94) |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.16% ( 0.03) | 27.83% ( -0.03) |
