SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 38.98%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.05%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 1-0 (10.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Colchester United | Draw | Newport County |
32.86% ( 0.04) | 28.17% ( 0.11) | 38.98% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 46.96% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.87% ( -0.36) | 59.14% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.43% ( -0.28) | 79.58% ( 0.29) |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.61% ( -0.16) | 33.4% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.98% ( -0.18) | 70.03% ( 0.19) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.51% ( -0.26) | 29.49% ( 0.27) |
