SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 47.77%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.87%) and 1-0 (5.75%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Swindon Town |
47.77% ( -0.27) | 21.67% ( -0.04) | 30.56% ( 0.31) |
| Both teams to score 68.07% ( 0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.66% ( 0.39) | 31.34% ( -0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.21% ( 0.46) | 52.79% ( -0.46) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.23% ( 0.06) | 13.77% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.92% ( 0.11) | 41.08% ( -0.11) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.94% ( 0.37) | 21.06% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.14% ( 0.57) | 53.86% ( -0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Notts County | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 4.57% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.91% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.15% Other @ 3.87% Total : 47.77% | 1-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.92% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.52% Total : 21.67% | 1-2 @ 6.98% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 3.59% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 3.52% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.04)3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.77% Total : 30.56% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 51 |
| 2 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 25 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 49 |
| 3 | Wrexham | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 49 |
| 4 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 48 |
| 5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 44 |
| 6 | Notts County | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 42 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | MK Dons | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 39 |
| 10 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 38 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 38 |
| 12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 37 |
| 13 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 36 |
| 14 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 |
| 17 | Morecambe | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 33 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 31 |
| 19 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 28 |
| 20 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 27 |
| 21 | Salford City | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 24 |
| 23 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 18 |
| 24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 18 |
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