SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.59%. A win for Bradford City had a probability of 36.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest Bradford City win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bradford City | Draw | Swindon Town |
36.48% ( 0.05) | 24.93% ( 0.01) | 38.59% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 57.99% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.65% ( -0.06) | 45.35% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.31% ( -0.06) | 67.68% ( 0.06) |
| Bradford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.59% ( -0) | 24.41% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.17% ( -0) | 58.83% ( 0) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.71% ( -0.06) | 23.29% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.78% ( -0.08) | 57.22% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bradford City | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.24% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.65% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.87% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.82% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.37% ( 0)4-2 @ 1% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 1.93% Total : 36.48% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.93% | 1-2 @ 8.51% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.04% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.14% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.07% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 2.14% Total : 38.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 51 |
| 2 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 25 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 49 |
| 3 | Wrexham | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 49 |
| 4 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 48 |
| 5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 44 |
| 6 | Notts County | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 42 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | MK Dons | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 39 |
| 10 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 38 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 38 |
| 12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 37 |
| 13 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 36 |
| 14 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 |
| 17 | Morecambe | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 33 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 31 |
| 19 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 28 |
| 20 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 27 |
| 21 | Salford City | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 24 |
| 23 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 18 |
| 24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 18 |
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