SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 44.74%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Union SG win was 1-0 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union SG | Draw | Ajax |
30.4% ( 0.1) | 24.87% ( 0.04) | 44.74% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 56.34% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.31% ( -0.14) | 46.69% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.05% ( -0.13) | 68.95% ( 0.13) |
| Union SG Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.25% ( -0) | 28.75% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.41% ( -0) | 64.59% ( -0) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.08% ( -0.12) | 20.92% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.35% ( -0.19) | 53.65% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union SG | Draw | Ajax |
| 1-0 @ 7.5% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.31% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 2.62% Total : 30.4% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.86% | 0-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.18% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.79% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.84% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.87% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.65% Total : 44.74% |
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