Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 38.9%. A win for Real Madrid has a probability of 35.59% and a draw has a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win is 1-0 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.36%). The likeliest Real Madrid win is 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.06%).
-0.58) 
0.02) 
