This is such a difficult match to call, with Athletic on a long unbeaten run, but Atletico away is one of the toughest matches in the division, and we can see Simeone's side edging a close game to put an incredibly important three points on the board. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 49.23%. A draw has a probability of 26.4% and a win for Athletic Bilbao has a probability of 24.33%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.43%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it is 0-1 (8.49%).

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
49.23% ( 0.02)	26.44% ( -0.01)	24.33% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 46.99% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.28% (

0.02)

56.72% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.33% (

0.02)

77.67% (

-0.01)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.89% (

0.02)

23.11% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.04% (

0.03)

56.96% (

-0.02)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.12% (

38.88% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.39% (

75.61%

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 49.22%

Athletic Bilbao 24.33%

Draw 26.44%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 13.16% 2-0 @ 9.64% ( 0) 2-1 @ 9.11% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.71% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.45% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.1% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.72% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0) Other @ 2.7% Total : 49.22%	1-1 @ 12.43% 0-0 @ 8.99% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.3% ( 0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 26.44%	0-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.87% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.01% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.26% ( -0) Other @ 1.5% Total : 24.33%