Athletic have shared the points in three of their last five league matches, including at home to Leganes at the end of January, and Girona are certainly good enough to avoid defeat on Saturday. That said, we are backing Athletic to emerge as narrow winners at San Mames.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 52.87%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Girona had a probability of 21.85%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.94%), while for a Girona win it was 0-1 (7.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
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