Athletic have been excellent on home soil this term, and we are finding it incredibly difficult to predict an upset here; Real Valladolid have suffered 11 defeats from their 12 away league games this season, but that is likely to become 12 from 13 on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 70.3%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 10.75%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.39%) and 3-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.91%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
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