Sevilla have drawn four of their 11 away league matches this season, while Valladolid have shared the points on three occasions in front of their own fans - we were close to picking a draw here, but we believe that Sevilla's additional quality and recent improvement will allow them to secure a narrow victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 46.76%. A win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 27.18% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (8.62%). The likeliest Real Valladolid win was 1-0 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sevilla would win this match.
-0.1) 
0.25) 
