SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 73.48%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 10.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 3-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.22%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-2 (3.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
73.48% ( 2.59) | 15.71% ( -1.41) | 10.81% ( -1.18) |
| Both teams to score 54.32% ( 1.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.98% ( 3.64) | 33.01% ( -3.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.26% ( 4.07) | 54.74% ( -4.07) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.28% ( 1.46) | 7.71% ( -1.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.52% ( 3.62) | 27.48% ( -3.62) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.86% ( 0.48) | 41.13% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.32% ( 0.42) | 77.67% ( -0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 2-0 @ 10.41% ( -0.48) 2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.3)3-0 @ 8.89% ( 0.22)1-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.99)3-1 @ 7.9% ( 0.3)4-0 @ 5.7% ( 0.52)4-1 @ 5.06% ( 0.52)3-2 @ 3.51% ( 0.18)5-0 @ 2.92% ( 0.45)5-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.43)4-2 @ 2.25% ( 0.26)6-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.26)5-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.2)6-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.24)Other @ 3.36% Total : 73.48% | 1-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.78) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.65)3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.16% Total : 15.71% | 1-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.3) 0-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.53)0-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.36% Total : 10.81% |
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