Both teams are in need of the points due to their European ambitions, but we are finding it difficult to separate them here; Villarreal will fancy their chances of picking up a positive result, but Rayo have been excellent this season, and we are expecting the hosts to be good enough to secure at least a point on Saturday afternoon.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 39.27%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 34.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Villarreal in this match.
0.04) 
-0.11) 
