SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 41.04%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Villarreal |
34.26% ( -1.39) | 24.7% ( 0.07) | 41.04% ( 1.32) |
| Both teams to score 58.43% ( -0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.37% ( -0.59) | 44.63% ( 0.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.01% ( -0.57) | 66.99% ( 0.57) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.67% ( -1.06) | 25.33% ( 1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.89% ( -1.48) | 60.11% ( 1.48) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.25% ( 0.38) | 21.75% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.07% ( 0.58) | 54.94% ( -0.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Villarreal |
| 2-1 @ 7.93% ( -0.2) 1-0 @ 7.57% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 5.2% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 3.63% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 2.38% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.6% Total : 34.26% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.7% | 1-2 @ 8.8% ( 0.15) 0-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.31)0-2 @ 6.41% ( 0.3)1-3 @ 4.48% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.19)2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.71% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.09)2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.5% Total : 41.04% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 70 | 20 | 50 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 24 | 6 | 8 | 75 | 36 | 39 | 78 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 33 | 37 | 77 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 71 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 40 | 19 | 64 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 60 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 53 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 51 |
| 9 | Mallorca | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 50 |
| 10 | GironaGirona | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 58 | 55 | 3 | 49 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 49 |
| 12 | Sevilla | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 49 |
| 13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 43 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 42 |
| 15 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 42 |
| 16 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
| 17 | Almeria | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 41 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 40 |
| R | Espanyol | 38 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 52 | 69 | -17 | 37 |
| R | ElcheElche | 38 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 30 | 67 | -37 | 25 |
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