Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 67.31%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 14.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.72%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-2 (4.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
1.56) 
-0.72) 
