SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 37.89%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 35.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Arouca in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Arouca.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
35.4% ( -0.31) | 26.71% ( 0.06) | 37.89% ( 0.25) |
| Both teams to score 51.82% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.79% ( -0.25) | 53.2% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.23% ( -0.22) | 74.77% ( 0.22) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.26% ( -0.31) | 28.74% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.42% ( -0.39) | 64.58% ( 0.39) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.73% ( 0.02) | 27.27% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.29% ( 0.03) | 62.7% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.64% Total : 35.4% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.7% | 0-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.62% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 3.57% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.08% Total : 37.89% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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