SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 41.54%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Arouca |
41.54% ( -0.61) | 27.48% ( 0.13) | 30.98% ( 0.48) |
| Both teams to score 48.4% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.94% ( -0.31) | 57.06% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.05% ( -0.25) | 77.94% ( 0.25) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.95% ( -0.47) | 27.05% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.58% ( -0.62) | 62.42% ( 0.62) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.35% ( 0.19) | 33.65% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.7% ( 0.21) | 70.3% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 11.9% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.47% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 3.69% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.98% Total : 41.54% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.48% | 0-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 7.06% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.68% ( 0)Other @ 2.4% Total : 30.98% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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