SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 41.44%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 32.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Rochdale |
41.44% ( 0.15) | 25.83% ( -0.01) | 32.72% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 54.13% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.99% ( 0.01) | 50% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.01% ( 0.01) | 71.98% ( -0.01) |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.09% ( 0.08) | 23.9% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.89% ( 0.12) | 58.1% ( -0.12) |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.13% ( -0.09) | 28.86% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.27% ( -0.11) | 64.72% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Rochdale |
| 1-0 @ 9.87% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.19% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.37% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 41.44% | 1-1 @ 12.26% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.9% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.46% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.82% | 0-1 @ 8.57% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.16% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.6% Total : 32.72% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 56 |
| 2 | Bromley | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 48 |
| 3 | Barnet | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 43 |
| 4 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 30 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 37 |
| 6 | Gateshead | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 29 | 18 | 36 |
| 7 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 36 |
| 8 | Halifax TownHalifax | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 35 |
| 9 | Rochdale | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 40 | 35 | 5 | 34 |
| 10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 33 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 33 |
| 12 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 30 |
| 13 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 27 |
| 15 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 27 |
| 16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 25 |
| 17 | Woking | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 25 |
| 18 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 25 |
| 19 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 25 |
| 20 | York City | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 24 |
| 21 | Ebbsfleet | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 23 |
| 22 | Oxford CityOxford City | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 21 |
| 23 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 19 |
| 24 | Fylde | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 18 |
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