SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rochdale win with a probability of 38.48%. A win for Oldham Athletic had a probability of 35.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win was 1-0 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Oldham Athletic win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rochdale | Draw | Oldham Athletic |
38.48% ( -0.01) | 25.56% ( -0.01) | 35.95% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 55.71% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.73% ( 0.05) | 48.27% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.58% ( 0.05) | 70.42% ( -0.05) |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.34% ( 0.02) | 24.65% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.82% ( 0.02) | 59.18% ( -0.02) |
| Oldham Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.94% ( 0.04) | 26.06% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.89% ( 0.05) | 61.1% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rochdale | Draw | Oldham Athletic |
| 1-0 @ 9% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.47% ( -0)2-0 @ 6.3% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.95% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.94% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.38% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.03% 4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 1.82% Total : 38.48% | 1-1 @ 12.09% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.55% | 0-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.13% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.81% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.65% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.6% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.55% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.23% ( 0)Other @ 3.34% Total : 35.95% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Chesterfield | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
| 2 | Barnet | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Bromley | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 34 |
| 5 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 29 |
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 27 |
| 8 | Gateshead | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 26 |
| 9 | Rochdale | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 24 |
| 10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 23 |
| 11 | Eastleigh | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 23 |
| 12 | Woking | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
| 13 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 22 |
| 14 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 22 |
| 15 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 16 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 21 |
| 17 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 17 |
| 20 | Fylde | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 16 |
| 21 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 16 |
| 22 | York City | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 16 |
| 23 | Oxford CityOxford City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 14 |
| 24 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 14 |
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