SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 59.39%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 17.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Valencia |
59.39% ( -1.28) | 23.43% ( 0.52) | 17.18% ( 0.76) |
| Both teams to score 45.62% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.67% ( -0.81) | 53.33% ( 0.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.12% ( -0.69) | 74.88% ( 0.69) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.33% ( -0.75) | 17.67% ( 0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.7% ( -1.31) | 48.3% ( 1.31) |
| Valencia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.42% ( 0.49) | 44.58% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.4% ( 0.39) | 80.6% ( -0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Valencia |
| 1-0 @ 13.65% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 11.83% ( -0.2)2-1 @ 9.56% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.29)3-1 @ 5.52% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.2)4-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.03% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.4% Total : 59.38% | 1-1 @ 11.03% ( 0.23) 0-0 @ 7.88% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.66% Total : 23.43% | 0-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.55% Total : 17.18% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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