SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 74.14%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 9.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 3-0 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.63%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (3.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barcelona | Draw | Valencia |
74.14% ( 1.22) | 16.09% ( -0.4) | 9.77% ( -0.82) |
| Both teams to score 48.5% ( -1.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.67% ( -0.66) | 38.32% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.39% ( -0.7) | 60.61% ( 0.7) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.14% ( 0.11) | 8.85% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.68% ( 0.28) | 30.31% ( -0.29) |
| Valencia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.21% ( -2.05) | 46.79% ( 2.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.67% ( -1.6) | 82.32% ( 1.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Barcelona | Draw | Valencia |
| 2-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.51) 1-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.36)3-0 @ 9.84% ( 0.46)2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 7.47% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.31)4-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.2)5-1 @ 2.2% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.11)6-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.07)Other @ 4.07% Total : 74.14% | 1-1 @ 7.63% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 3.51% ( -0.26)Other @ 0.81% Total : 16.09% | 0-1 @ 3.15% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.9% ( -0.23)0-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.53% Total : 9.77% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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