SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 42.17%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 33.3% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Barcelona |
42.17% ( 3.77) | 24.52% ( -0.21) | 33.3% ( -3.56) |
| Both teams to score 58.8% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.98% ( 0.38) | 44.02% ( -0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.59% ( 0.37) | 66.4% ( -0.37) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.03% ( 1.99) | 20.96% ( -1.99) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.28% ( 3.02) | 53.72% ( -3.02) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.4% ( -1.83) | 25.6% ( 1.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.52% ( -2.57) | 60.48% ( 2.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Barcelona |
| 2-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.44) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( 0.36)2-0 @ 6.55% ( 0.64)3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.48)3-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.51)3-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.28)4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.27)4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.71% Total : 42.17% | 1-1 @ 11.42% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.37% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.51% | 1-2 @ 7.78% ( -0.51) 0-1 @ 7.31% ( -0.53)0-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.65)1-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.43)2-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.16)0-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.44)1-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.22)2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.52% Total : 33.3% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 34 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 89 | 31 | 58 | 82 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 81 | 39 | 42 | 78 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 33 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 61 | 27 | 34 | 65 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 33 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 63 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 67 | 42 | 25 | 62 |
| 6 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 35 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 64 | 57 | 7 | 57 |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 62 | 40 | 22 | 55 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 35 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 54 |
| 9 | Brentford | 35 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 52 | 45 | 7 | 50 |
| 10 | Fulham | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 45 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 40 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 35 | 11 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 50 | -20 | 40 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 35 | 11 | 6 | 18 | 37 | 67 | -30 | 39 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 34 |
| 16 | Leicester CityLeicester | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 46 | 59 | -13 | 30 |
| 17 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 35 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 30 |
| 18 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 30 |
| 19 | Everton | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 27 | 52 | -25 | 29 |
| 20 | Southampton | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 24 |
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