SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 60.64%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 17.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.1%), while for an Atletico Madrid win it was 0-1 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
60.64% ( -0.01) | 21.37% ( 0) | 17.99% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 53.45% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.34% ( 0.01) | 43.67% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.94% ( 0) | 66.06% |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.06% ( 0) | 13.94% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.58% ( -0) | 41.42% ( 0) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.11% ( 0.01) | 37.89% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.34% ( 0.01) | 74.66% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 10.41% 2-0 @ 10.25% 2-1 @ 9.95% 3-0 @ 6.73% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.54% 4-0 @ 3.32% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.22% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.17% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.31% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.27% Other @ 2.92% Total : 60.64% | 1-1 @ 10.1% 0-0 @ 5.28% 2-2 @ 4.83% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.37% | 0-1 @ 5.13% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.9% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.49% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.59% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0)Other @ 2.32% Total : 17.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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