SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Real Madrid |
31.53% ( -0.01) | 26.07% ( -0.01) | 42.39% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 52.92% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.63% ( 0.03) | 51.37% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.81% ( 0.03) | 73.19% ( -0.03) |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.66% ( 0.01) | 30.33% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.48% ( 0.01) | 66.52% ( -0.01) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.97% ( 0.02) | 24.03% ( -0.03) |
