There is no downplaying the importance of this match, with both sides in need of the three points, especially Atletico considering their recent issues. It would not be a surprise to see a draw on Saturday, but we just have a feeling that the reigning champions will do enough to secure all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 61.39%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 15.62%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.54%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
