FCSB will be desperate to make full use of home advantage in Thursday's first leg, but they are set to face a club that have gone 11 consecutive Europa League away matches without defeat, including two wins and two draws in Lyon's four away outings in the league phase.
With that in mind, we think that the French visitors will do enough to hold their hosts to a draw, which would leave everything to play for in next week's second leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 51.05%. A win for FCSB had a probability of 25.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.4%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest FCSB win was 2-1 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
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