SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 37.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.38%) and 0-2 (5.61%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Qarabag FK | Draw | Lyon |
37.58% ( 1.75) | 24.18% ( -0.08) | 38.23% ( -1.66) |
| Both teams to score 60.79% ( 0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.25% ( 0.54) | 41.75% ( -0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.84% ( 0.54) | 64.15% ( -0.54) |
| Qarabag FK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.8% ( 1.16) | 22.2% ( -1.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.39% ( 1.71) | 55.61% ( -1.71) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.13% ( -0.58) | 21.87% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.89% ( -0.88) | 55.11% ( 0.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qarabag FK | Draw | Lyon |
| 2-1 @ 8.36% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 7.31% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 5.5% ( 0.24)3-1 @ 4.19% ( 0.25)3-2 @ 3.19% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 2.76% ( 0.21)4-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.14)4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.46% Total : 37.58% | 1-1 @ 11.1% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.35% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 4.85% ( -0.12)3-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.18% | 1-2 @ 8.44% ( -0.21) 0-1 @ 7.38% ( -0.31)0-2 @ 5.61% ( -0.34)1-3 @ 4.28% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.23)1-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.54% Total : 38.23% |
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