SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Santos | 20 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 3 | 26 |
| 11 | Goias | 20 | -3 | 25 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 20 | 5 | 34 |
| 5 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 33 |
| 6 | Internacional | 20 | 10 | 33 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 34.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Flamengo |
37.87% ( -0.04) | 27.69% ( 0) | 34.44% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 48.64% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.84% ( -0.02) | 57.16% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.97% ( -0.02) | 78.02% ( 0.02) |
| Sao Paulo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.82% ( -0.03) | 29.18% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.87% ( -0.04) | 65.12% ( 0.04) |
| Flamengo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.68% ( 0.01) | 31.31% ( -0.01) |
