We said: Corinthians 1-1 Flamengo
The morale boost from midweek events should lift both sides for the occasion, but neither is likely to give too much away ahead of their two-legged Libertadores tie in the coming weeks.
Despite benefiting from home advantage, Corinthians are still short of quality up front, so may be forced to settle for a low-scoring draw.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 32.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Corinthians in this match.
0.21) 
-0.08) 
