SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Santos | 19 | 6 | 26 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 19 | 4 | 26 |
| 11 | Ceara | 19 | 1 | 24 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Coritiba | 19 | -8 | 22 |
| 15 | America Mineiro | 19 | -9 | 21 |
| 16 | Avai | 19 | -10 | 21 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 64.68%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 13.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.14%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.
| Result | ||
| Sao Paulo | Draw | America Mineiro |
64.68% ( 0.38) | 21.61% ( 0.02) | 13.71% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 43.28% ( -1.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.71% ( -0.85) | 52.29% ( 0.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.01% ( -0.74) | 73.98% ( 0.73) |
| Sao Paulo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.5% ( -0.16) | 15.5% ( 0.16) |
