SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 51.82%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 24.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Auckland FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Auckland FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Auckland FC | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
51.82% ( -0.13) | 23.92% ( 0.01) | 24.26% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 54.46% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.13% ( 0.09) | 46.87% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.88% ( 0.09) | 69.12% ( -0.09) |
| Auckland FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.92% ( -0.01) | 18.08% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.99% ( -0.02) | 49.01% ( 0.02) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.48% ( 0.16) | 33.52% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.84% ( 0.17) | 70.16% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Auckland FC | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 1-0 @ 10.36% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.52% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.36% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.16% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.29% ( 0)Other @ 3.48% Total : 51.81% | 1-1 @ 11.33% 0-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.3% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.92% | 0-1 @ 6.63% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.19% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.62% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 24.26% |
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