SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.52%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (8.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Gil Vicente |
32.17% ( 1.14) | 26.31% ( 0.17) | 41.52% ( -1.31) |
| Both teams to score 52.4% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.84% ( -0.31) | 52.16% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.12% ( -0.27) | 73.87% ( 0.27) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.69% ( 0.62) | 30.3% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.51% ( 0.74) | 66.48% ( -0.74) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.18% ( -0.8) | 24.82% ( 0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.59% ( -1.13) | 59.41% ( 1.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Santa Clara | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 8.98% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 7.47% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.24)3-1 @ 2.97% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 2.13% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.18% Total : 32.17% | 1-1 @ 12.51% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 5.21% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.31% | 0-1 @ 10.48% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 8.72% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 4.05% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 3.39% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.57% Total : 41.52% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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