SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 42.7%. A win for Pisa had a probability of 29.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Pisa win was 0-1 (9.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ascoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ascoli | Draw | Pisa |
42.7% ( 0.25) | 27.72% ( -0.08) | 29.58% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 47.13% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.61% ( 0.23) | 58.39% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.01% ( 0.18) | 78.99% ( -0.18) |
| Ascoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.95% ( 0.24) | 27.05% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.58% ( 0.31) | 62.42% ( -0.31) |
| Pisa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.61% ( 0) | 35.39% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.84% ( 0) | 72.16% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ascoli | Draw | Pisa |
| 1-0 @ 12.51% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.5% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 8.18% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.7% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.93% Total : 42.7% | 1-1 @ 13% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.58% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.72% | 0-1 @ 9.95% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.75% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.34% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.06% Total : 29.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | FrosinoneFrosinone | 37 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 60 | 24 | 36 | 77 |
| 2 | Genoa | 37 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 70 |
| 3 | BariBari | 37 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 65 |
| 4 | SudtirolSudtirol | 37 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 37 | 32 | 5 | 58 |
| 5 | CagliariCagliari | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 57 |
| 6 | Parma | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 46 | 38 | 8 | 57 |
| 7 | VeneziaVenezia | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 49 |
| 8 | Palermo | 37 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 48 |
| 9 | Pisa | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 47 |
| 10 | RegginaReggina | 37 | 16 | 4 | 17 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 47 |
| 11 | AscoliAscoli | 37 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 47 |
| 12 | Como | 37 | 10 | 16 | 11 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 46 |
| 13 | Modena | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 45 |
| 14 | Ternana | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 43 |
| 15 | Cittadella | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 17 | Brescia | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34 | 55 | -21 | 39 |
| 18 | Perugia | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 36 |
| 19 | SPALSPAL | 37 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 35 |
| 20 | BeneventoBenevento | 37 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 35 |
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