SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 45.63%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 27.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cagliari | Draw | Ascoli |
45.63% ( -0.01) | 27.11% ( -0) | 27.26% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 47.51% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.75% ( 0.02) | 57.24% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.91% ( 0.01) | 78.09% ( -0.01) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.97% ( 0) | 25.03% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.3% ( 0) | 59.7% ( -0.01) |
| Ascoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.38% ( 0.02) | 36.62% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.59% ( 0.02) | 73.41% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cagliari | Draw | Ascoli |
| 1-0 @ 12.69% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.83% 2-0 @ 8.79% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.08% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.06% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.05% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.41% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.41% Other @ 2.31% Total : 45.63% | 1-1 @ 12.75% 0-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0)Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.1% | 0-1 @ 9.21% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.41% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.63% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.55% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0)Other @ 1.84% Total : 27.26% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 51 | 20 | 31 | 68 |
| 2 | Genoa | 35 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 67 |
| 3 | BariBari | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 53 | 32 | 21 | 61 |
| 4 | SudtirolSudtirol | 35 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 54 |
| 5 | Parma | 35 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 38 | 5 | 52 |
| 6 | CagliariCagliari | 35 | 12 | 15 | 8 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 51 |
| 7 | Pisa | 35 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 46 |
| 8 | RegginaReggina | 34 | 15 | 4 | 15 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 46 |
| 9 | AscoliAscoli | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 46 |
| 10 | VeneziaVenezia | 35 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 45 | 1 | 45 |
| 11 | Palermo | 35 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 45 |
| 12 | Modena | 35 | 12 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 44 |
| 13 | Como | 35 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 43 |
| 14 | Ternana | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 43 |
| 15 | Cittadella | 35 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 38 |
| 16 | Brescia | 35 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 52 | -19 | 38 |
| 17 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 35 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 38 |
| 18 | Perugia | 35 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 36 |
| 19 | SPALSPAL | 35 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 35 |
| 20 | BeneventoBenevento | 35 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
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