Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 42.79%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 1-0 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
