SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 56.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 20.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mansfield Town | Draw | Newport County |
56.66% ( 1.01) | 22.39% ( -0.17) | 20.95% ( -0.84) |
| Both teams to score 55.19% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.17% ( -0.31) | 43.83% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.78% ( -0.31) | 66.21% ( 0.3) |
| Mansfield Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.73% ( 0.23) | 15.27% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.04% ( 0.43) | 43.96% ( -0.43) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.14% ( -0.98) | 34.86% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.4% ( -1.05) | 71.59% ( 1.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mansfield Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 10% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.27)3-1 @ 6.21% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.22)3-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.63% Total : 56.66% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.38% | 0-1 @ 5.61% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.01% Total : 20.95% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 51 |
| 2 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 25 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 49 |
| 3 | Wrexham | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 49 |
| 4 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 48 |
| 5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 44 |
| 6 | Notts County | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 42 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | MK Dons | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 39 |
| 10 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 38 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 38 |
| 12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 37 |
| 13 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 36 |
| 14 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 |
| 17 | Morecambe | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 33 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 31 |
| 19 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 28 |
| 20 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 27 |
| 21 | Salford City | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 24 |
| 23 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 18 |
| 24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 18 |
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