SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Espanyol | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Elche | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Sevilla | 4 | -5 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 73.07%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Elche had a probability of 9.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.33%) and 3-0 (10.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.21%), while for a Elche win it was 0-1 (3.68%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Elche |
73.07% ( 0.6) | 17.34% ( -0.26) | 9.59% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 43.36% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.27% ( 0.16) | 44.73% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.9% ( 0.15) | 67.1% ( -0.15) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.23% ( 0.2) | 10.77% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.24% ( 0.44) | 34.76% ( -0.45) |
| Elche Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.59% ( -0.59) | 51.41% ( 0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.38% ( -0.4) | 85.62% ( 0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Elche |
| 2-0 @ 13.74% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 12.33% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 10.21% ( 0.18)2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 6.8% ( 0)4-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 3.79% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.68% Total : 73.06% | 1-1 @ 8.21% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 5.54% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.55% Total : 17.34% | 0-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.95% Total : 9.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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