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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 37.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.3%) and 0-2 (5.54%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Jong AZ | Draw | VVV-Venlo |
37.92% ( 0.14) | 24.14% ( -0.14) | 37.94% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 60.96% ( 0.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.46% ( 0.67) | 41.54% ( -0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.07% ( 0.68) | 63.93% ( -0.68) |
| Jong AZ Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.07% ( 0.37) | 21.93% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.79% ( 0.56) | 55.21% ( -0.57) |
| VVV-Venlo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.08% ( 0.3) | 21.92% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.81% ( 0.45) | 55.19% ( -0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong AZ | Draw | VVV-Venlo |
| 2-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.29% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 5.53% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 4.25% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.22% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.8% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.53% Total : 37.92% | 1-1 @ 11.07% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 4.81% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.14% | 1-2 @ 8.4% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 4.25% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 1.06% ( 0)Other @ 2.53% Total : 37.94% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PEC Zwolle | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 79 | 32 | 47 | 66 |
| 2 | Heracles | 28 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 78 | 32 | 46 | 60 |
| 3 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 51 |
| 4 | Almere CityAlmere City | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 49 |
| 5 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 46 |
| 6 | Willem II | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 46 | 33 | 13 | 44 |
| 7 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 29 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 43 |
| 8 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Roda JC | 29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | Jong AZJong AZ | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 40 |
| 11 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 39 |
| 12 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 39 |
| 13 | TelstarTelstar | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 39 |
| 14 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 35 |
| 15 | Helmond SportHelmond | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 32 |
| 16 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 31 |
| 17 | TOP OssOss | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 30 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 28 | 8 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 27 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 20 |
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