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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 57.71%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.39%), while for a Helmond Sport win it was 0-1 (5.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| VVV-Venlo | Draw | Helmond Sport |
57.71% ( -0.04) | 22.08% ( 0.02) | 20.21% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 55.05% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.54% ( -0.08) | 43.46% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.15% ( -0.08) | 65.85% ( 0.08) |
| VVV-Venlo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.2% ( -0.04) | 14.8% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.93% ( -0.08) | 43.07% ( 0.08) |
| Helmond Sport Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.61% ( -0.03) | 35.39% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.85% ( -0.03) | 72.15% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| VVV-Venlo | Draw | Helmond Sport |
| 1-0 @ 10% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0)2-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.32% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.09% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.11% ( -0)Other @ 2.76% Total : 57.71% | 1-1 @ 10.39% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.16% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.08% | 0-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.4% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.87% 2-3 @ 1.79% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.98% ( 0)Other @ 1.91% Total : 20.21% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | Heracles | 36 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 98 | 42 | 56 | 79 |
| P | PEC Zwolle | 35 | 25 | 4 | 6 | 92 | 37 | 55 | 79 |
| 3 | Almere CityAlmere City | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 66 |
| 4 | Willem II | 36 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 63 | 38 | 25 | 64 |
| 5 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 52 | 5 | 57 |
| 6 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 56 |
| 7 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 36 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 63 | 63 | 0 | 56 |
| 8 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 53 | 49 | 4 | 54 |
| 9 | TelstarTelstar | 36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 50 |
| 10 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 60 | 52 | 8 | 49 |
| 11 | Jong AZJong AZ | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 47 |
| 12 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 51 | -6 | 47 |
| 13 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 64 | 66 | -2 | 43 |
| 14 | Roda JC | 36 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 42 |
| 15 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 55 | 60 | -5 | 41 |
| 16 | Helmond SportHelmond | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 40 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 36 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 33 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 35 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 33 |
| 19 | TOP OssOss | 35 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 41 | 73 | -32 | 32 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 35 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 32 | 61 | -29 | 26 |
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