SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 54.28%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 23.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.96%) and 0-2 (8.44%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 2-1 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Helmond Sport | Draw | De Graafschap |
23.28% ( -0.89) | 22.44% ( -0.52) | 54.28% ( 1.41) |
| Both teams to score 58.27% ( 0.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.73% ( 1.41) | 41.27% ( -1.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.34% ( 1.42) | 63.66% ( -1.42) |
| Helmond Sport Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.69% ( 0.02) | 31.3% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.34% ( 0.02) | 67.66% ( -0.03) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.83% ( 0.98) | 15.17% ( -0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.22% ( 1.82) | 43.78% ( -1.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Helmond Sport | Draw | De Graafschap |
| 2-1 @ 6.04% ( -0.17) 1-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.36)2-0 @ 3.2% ( -0.21)3-1 @ 2.34% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.74% Total : 23.28% | 1-1 @ 10.4% ( -0.3) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 4.75% ( -0.31)3-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.44% | 1-2 @ 9.81% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.27)0-2 @ 8.44% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 6.17% ( 0.23)0-3 @ 5.31% ( 0.2)2-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.14)1-4 @ 2.91% ( 0.2)0-4 @ 2.5% ( 0.17)2-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.12)1-5 @ 1.1% ( 0.11)0-5 @ 0.94% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.89% Total : 54.28% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PEC Zwolle | 27 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 60 |
| 2 | Heracles | 27 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 76 | 32 | 44 | 57 |
| 3 | Almere CityAlmere City | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 49 |
| 4 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 37 | 3 | 45 |
| 5 | Willem II | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 30 | 14 | 44 |
| 6 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 42 |
| 7 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Jong AZJong AZ | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 40 |
| 9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 40 |
| 10 | Roda JC | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 37 |
| 11 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 36 |
| 12 | TelstarTelstar | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 35 |
| 14 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 32 |
| 15 | TOP OssOss | 27 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 30 |
| 16 | Helmond SportHelmond | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 29 |
| 17 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 28 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 27 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 37 | 65 | -28 | 27 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 26 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 20 |
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