SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 57.77%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for De Graafschap had a probability of 21.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.48%) and 1-0 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.63%), while for a De Graafschap win it was 1-2 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | De Graafschap |
57.77% ( 1.03) | 21.14% ( -0.22) | 21.09% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 59.76% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.09% ( -0.01) | 37.91% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.84% ( -0.01) | 60.16% ( 0.01) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.05% ( 0.3) | 12.95% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.58% ( 0.61) | 39.41% ( -0.61) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.64% ( -0.73) | 31.36% ( 0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.28% ( -0.85) | 67.72% ( 0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | De Graafschap |
| 2-1 @ 9.84% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.19)1-0 @ 8.3% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 5.78% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 3.89% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 2.95% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.8% Total : 57.77% | 1-1 @ 9.63% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.1)0-0 @ 4.06% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.25% Total : 21.14% | 1-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.65% Total : 21.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 85 | 36 | 49 | 72 |
| 2 | Heracles | 32 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 67 |
| 3 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 59 |
| 4 | Willem II | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 53 |
| 5 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 52 |
| 6 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 50 |
| 7 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 32 | 15 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 49 |
| 8 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 58 | 57 | 1 | 47 |
| 9 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 53 | 44 | 9 | 45 |
| 10 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 43 |
| 11 | TelstarTelstar | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 43 |
| 12 | Roda JC | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 43 | 46 | -3 | 42 |
| 13 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 51 | 51 | 0 | 41 |
| 14 | Jong AZJong AZ | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 41 |
| 15 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 58 | 61 | -3 | 37 |
| 16 | Helmond SportHelmond | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 35 |
| 17 | TOP OssOss | 31 | 9 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 57 | -21 | 31 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 34 | 55 | -21 | 30 |
| 19 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 32 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 42 | 77 | -35 | 30 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 20 |
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