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CONCACAF Nations League | Third-Place Playoff
Mar 23, 2025 at 10pm UK
SoFi Stadium
UN

Canada
2 - 1
USA

Oluwaseyi (27'), David (59')
Bombito (43'), Kone (67')
LIVE
90'
Agyemang (35')
Scally (30')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Canada 0-2 Mexico
Friday, March 21 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Current Group A Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina359
2Canada3-14
3Chile3-12
4Peru3-31
All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: USA 0-1 Panama
Thursday, March 20 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League
Current Group C Standings P GD PTS
1Uruguay389
2Panama316
3USA303
4Bolivia3-90

We say: Canada 1-1 USA (USA win on penalties)

The Canadians try too hard to make the perfect play rather than the simple one against the experienced sides in this region and that could come back to bite them on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a USA win with a probability of 41.45%. A win for Canada has a probability of 33.6% and a draw has a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.79%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Canada win is 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.72%).

Result
CanadaDrawUSA
33.6%24.95%41.45%
Both teams to score 57.38%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.09%45.92%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.78%68.22%
Canada Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.67%26.33%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.53%61.47%
USA Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.89%22.11%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.52%55.48%
Score Analysis
    Canada 33.6%
    USA 41.45%
    Draw 24.95%
CanadaDrawUSA
2-1 @ 7.82%
1-0 @ 7.77%
2-0 @ 5.18%
3-1 @ 3.48%
3-2 @ 2.63%
3-0 @ 2.31%
4-1 @ 1.16%
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 33.6%
1-1 @ 11.72%
2-2 @ 5.9%
0-0 @ 5.82%
3-3 @ 1.32%
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.95%
1-2 @ 8.85%
0-1 @ 8.79%
0-2 @ 6.63%
1-3 @ 4.45%
0-3 @ 3.33%
2-3 @ 2.97%
1-4 @ 1.68%
0-4 @ 1.26%
2-4 @ 1.12%
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 41.45%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Canada 0-2 Mexico
Friday, March 21 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Canada 3-0 Suriname
Wednesday, November 20 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Suriname 0-1 Canada
Friday, November 15 at 11.30pm in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Canada 2-1 Panama
Wednesday, October 16 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Canada
Wednesday, September 11 at 2am in International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 1-2 Canada
Saturday, September 7 at 9pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 0-1 Panama
Thursday, March 20 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: USA 3-0 Costa Rica
Thursday, January 23 at 12am in International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 3-1 Venezuela
Saturday, January 18 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 4-2 Jamaica
Tuesday, November 19 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Jamaica 0-1 USA
Friday, November 15 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Mexico 2-0 USA
Wednesday, October 16 at 3.30am in International Friendlies


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