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CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals
Mar 21, 2025 at 2.30am UK
Masafi Stadium
MN

Canada
vs.
Mexico

 

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Canada 3-0 Suriname
Wednesday, November 20 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Current Group A Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina359
2Canada3-14
3Chile3-12
4Peru3-31
All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Mexico 4-0 Honduras
Wednesday, November 20 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League

We say: Canada 2-0 Mexico

The Canadians should be fairly confident coming into this match, having fared well against many elite nations over the past year, and we believe their individual quality in the attacking third will ultimately make the difference. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Canada win with a probability of 46.35%. A win for Mexico has a probability of 28.73% and a draw has a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Mexico win is 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.79%).

Result
CanadaDrawMexico
46.35% (0.443 0.44) 24.91% (0.145 0.15) 28.73% (-0.589 -0.59)
Both teams to score 55.19% (-0.858 -0.86)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.25% (-0.95500000000001 -0.96)47.74% (0.956 0.96)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.06% (-0.886 -0.89)69.93% (0.88799999999999 0.89)
Canada Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.35% (-0.19500000000001 -0.2)20.64% (0.196 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.78% (-0.312 -0.31)53.21% (0.313 0.31)
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.54% (-0.91 -0.91)30.45% (0.91 0.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.34% (-1.094 -1.09)66.66% (1.095 1.1)
Score Analysis
    Canada 46.35%
    Mexico 28.73%
    Draw 24.91%
CanadaDrawMexico
1-0 @ 9.92% (0.331 0.33)
2-1 @ 9.3% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.83% (0.214 0.21)
3-1 @ 4.89% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.12% (0.088 0.09)
3-2 @ 2.91% (-0.084 -0.08)
4-1 @ 1.93% (-0.019 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.62% (0.025 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.15% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 46.35%
1-1 @ 11.79% (0.1 0.1)
0-0 @ 6.29% (0.246 0.25)
2-2 @ 5.53% (-0.126 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.15% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.91%
0-1 @ 7.48% (0.11 0.11)
1-2 @ 7.01% (-0.116 -0.12)
0-2 @ 4.44% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
1-3 @ 2.78% (-0.118 -0.12)
2-3 @ 2.19% (-0.107 -0.11)
0-3 @ 1.76% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 28.73%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Canada 3-0 Suriname
Wednesday, November 20 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Suriname 0-1 Canada
Friday, November 15 at 11.30pm in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Canada 2-1 Panama
Wednesday, October 16 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Canada
Wednesday, September 11 at 2am in International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 1-2 Canada
Saturday, September 7 at 9pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Canada 2-2 Uruguay (3-4 pen.)
Sunday, July 14 at 1am in Copa America
Last Game: Mexico 4-0 Honduras
Wednesday, November 20 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Honduras 2-0 Mexico
Saturday, November 16 at 2am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Mexico 2-0 USA
Wednesday, October 16 at 3.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Canada
Wednesday, September 11 at 2am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 3-0 New Zealand
Sunday, September 8 at 2am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, July 1 at 1am in Copa America


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