SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Uruguay | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Panama | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | USA | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Bolivia | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Colombia | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Brazil | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Paraguay | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 65.42%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 13.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.02%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.93%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
| Result | ||
| USA | Draw | Costa Rica |
65.42% ( 0.29) | 21.1% ( -0.19) | 13.48% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 44.15% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.23% ( 0.53) | 50.76% ( -0.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.34% ( 0.46) | 72.66% ( -0.47) |
| USA Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.24% ( 0.27) | 14.75% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.01% ( 0.51) | 42.99% ( -0.51) |
| Costa Rica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.79% ( 0.16) | 48.21% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.61% ( 0.12) | 83.38% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| USA | Draw | Costa Rica |
| 1-0 @ 13.61% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 13.02% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.14% Total : 65.42% | 1-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.59% Total : 21.1% | 0-1 @ 5.19% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.77% Total : 13.48% |
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