SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 47.6%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Cardiff City had a probability of 25.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.13%) and 1-2 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for a Cardiff City win it was 1-0 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cardiff City | Draw | Stoke City |
25.89% ( -0.18) | 26.51% ( 0.1) | 47.6% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 48.16% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.11% ( -0.49) | 55.89% ( 0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23% ( -0.4) | 77% ( 0.4) |
| Cardiff City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.96% ( -0.42) | 37.04% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.17% ( -0.42) | 73.83% ( 0.42) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.5% ( -0.17) | 23.5% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.47% ( -0.25) | 57.53% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cardiff City | Draw | Stoke City |
| 1-0 @ 8.65% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 4.29% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.06% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.76% Total : 25.89% | 1-1 @ 12.51% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.7% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 4.5% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.79% Total : 26.5% | 0-1 @ 12.6% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 9.13% ( 0.08)1-2 @ 9.07% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 4.41% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.6% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.67% Total : 47.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Burnley | 46 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 87 | 35 | 52 | 101 |
| P | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 7 | 11 | 73 | 39 | 34 | 91 |
| P | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 21 | 17 | 8 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 80 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 84 | 56 | 28 | 75 |
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 70 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 69 |
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 69 |
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 68 |
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 59 | 53 | 6 | 66 |
| 10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 66 |
| 11 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 56 | 53 | 3 | 63 |
| 12 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 63 |
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 62 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 55 | 56 | -1 | 59 |
| 15 | Hull City | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 51 | 61 | -10 | 58 |
| 16 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 55 | 54 | 1 | 53 |
| 17 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 53 |
| 18 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 53 |
| 19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 50 |
| 20 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 50 |
| 21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 49 |
| R | Reading | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 44 |
| R | Blackpool | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 48 | 72 | -24 | 44 |
| R | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 39 |
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