SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 43.08%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (8.2%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-0 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | AC Milan |
29.43% ( -0.16) | 27.49% ( -0.04) | 43.08% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 47.7% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.38% ( 0.07) | 57.62% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.61% ( 0.06) | 78.39% ( -0.06) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.9% ( -0.08) | 35.1% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.15% ( -0.08) | 71.84% ( 0.09) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.5% ( 0.13) | 26.5% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.31% ( 0.18) | 61.69% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | AC Milan |
| 1-0 @ 9.74% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.78% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.57% ( -0)Other @ 2.12% Total : 29.43% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.5% ( 0)Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.48% | 0-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.59% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 8.2% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.8% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.63% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.05% Total : 43.08% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 31 | 61 | 85 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 83 | 42 | 41 | 81 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 66 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 66 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 65 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 66 | 45 | 21 | 58 |
| 7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 59 | 6 | 57 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 57 |
| 9 | Brentford | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 53 |
| 10 | Fulham | 36 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 43 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 43 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 39 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 37 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 34 |
| 17 | Everton | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 32 |
| 18 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 36 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 31 |
| 19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 30 |
| R | Southampton | 36 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 66 | -35 | 24 |
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